With over 60% newly elected MEPs, there is a lot of uncertainty as to where the new European Parliament is heading. At EUChanger’s EU academy on 21 June, Davide Ferrari, chief of research at VoteWatch Europe, gave his take on the impact of the May 2019 European Parliament elections.
His analysis shows that finding majorities in the new parliament will be a challenging endeavour. With only 45% of the seats, the traditional ‘grand coalition’ (EPP + S&D) is dead. A centre-right coalition with Renew Europe (ex-ALDE), EPP and ECR also falls short of a majority. As a result of the rise of right-wing populism in many European countries, a ‘super conservative coalition’ (EPP, ECR, ID and Brexit Party) would be much more powerful than a ‘left coalition’ with all progressives (S&D, Greens, GUE and 5-Star) but could still only muster 47%.
So two principal options remain with Renew Europe (RE) playing a key role to deliver a majority in both: a ‘super grand coalition’ with S&D, EPP and RE (59% of votes) or a ‘super progressive coalition’ with S&D, RE, Greens, GUE and 5-star (53% of votes). More than ever, the liberals are set to be the king-makers in the new EP. It’s essential for those advocating for the public good to engage with them.
Take a look at Davide Ferrari’s presentation: #Elections2019: what impact on the #EU?